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West Ham vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fulham
Fulham
T. Souček 90+1'
11/7/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

West Ham41%
×Draw25%
Fulham33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.50
Fulham
1.32

West Ham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Fulham
1.13

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Fulham
1.62

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
67%
West Ham or Fulham
75%
Draw or Fulham
59%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
20%
Fulham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
78%
West Ham 2+ goals
44%
West Ham 3+ goals
19%
Fulham 1+ goals
73%
Fulham 2+ goals
38%
Fulham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
55%
Fulham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Fulham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fulham attack 1.13 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Ham scores more
41%
level
25%
Fulham scores more
33%

West Ham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. CresswellWest HamWest Ham · D
8.2

Match Events

55'
Aleksandar Mitrović
56'
Angelo Ogbonna
63'
I. Diop← A. Ogbonna
72'
M. Lanzini← J. Bowen
72'
S. Benrahma← Pablo Fornals
83'
R. Loftus-Cheek← B. De Cordova-Reid
88'
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
90'
Issa Diop
90'
Tom CairneyGoal cancelled
90+3'
Ivan Cavaleiro← A. Zambo Anguissa
90+1'
T. Souček↳ S. Benrahma

Possession

53%West

Shots

16West

Pass accuracy

51%West

Statistics

WestFulham
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots13
9Corners5
10Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots13
7On Target3
8Off Target4
1Blocked6
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
506Total Passes460
446Accurate Passes382
88%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Premier League: West Ham 1–0 Fulham

West Ham beat Fulham 1-0 in Premier League on November 7, 2020.

Goals: T. Souček (90+1').

West Ham controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.