Fulham 0–1 West Ham: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

West Ham

C. Summerville 65'

3/4/2026

Premier League · Round 29Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Fulham47%

×Draw25%

West Ham28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.14

Fulham

1.56

West Ham

1.14

Fulham creates 37% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fulham

1.30

West Ham

1.07

allows per match

Fulham

1.20

West Ham

1.81

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Fulham+0.26scores more

West Ham-0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

72%

Fulham or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

53%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

24%

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

79%

Fulham 2+ goals

46%

Fulham 3+ goals

21%

West Ham 1+ goals

68%

West Ham 2+ goals

32%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

63%

West Ham (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 27 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.30 + West Ham defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Ham attack 1.07 + Fulham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fulham scores more

47%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

28%

Fulham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Mateus Fernandes

41'

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

49'

Tom CairneyPenalty cancelled

60'

Rodrigo Muniz← R. Jimenez

60'

S. Magassa← C. Wilson

61'

E. Smith Rowe← J. King

61'

O. Bobb← T. Cairney

65'

C. Summerville↳ J. Bowen

82'

R. Sessegnon← S. Berge

82'

T. Castagne← K. Tete

88'

A. Traore← T. Castellanos

90+9'

90+1'

90+10'

90+9'

90+2'

K. Mavropanos← J. Todibo

90+2'

M. Kante← M. Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamWest

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots9

1.01Expected Goals (xG)1.09

6Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots9

5On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

555Total Passes374

462Accurate Passes299

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.65Goals Prevented0.65

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides7