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West Ham vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Brentford
Brentford
J. Dasilva 43'
I. Toney 18'
12/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham42%
×Draw25%
Brentford32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.51
Brentford
1.29

West Ham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.40
Brentford
1.19

allows per match

West Ham
1.39
Brentford
1.63

finishing

West Ham+0.05on par
Brentford+0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
68%
West Ham or Brentford
75%
Draw or Brentford
58%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
21%
Brentford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
78%
West Ham 2+ goals
44%
West Ham 3+ goals
19%
Brentford 1+ goals
72%
Brentford 2+ goals
37%
Brentford 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
57%
Brentford (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.40 + Brentford defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Brentford attack 1.19 + West Ham defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Ham scores more
42%
level
25%
Brentford scores more
32%

West Ham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
I. ToneyBrentfordBrentford · F
8.7

Match Events

18'
I. Toney
43'
J. Dasilva↳ I. Toney
49'
Jarrod BowenPenalty cancelled
58'
Y. Wissa← B. Mbeumo
59'
V. Janelt← M. Jensen
64'
M. Antonio← Emerson
67'
S. Ghoddos← J. Dasilva
70'
Vladimír Coufal
82'
T. Souček← Lucas Paquetá
90+5'
P. Jansson← I. Toney

Possession

63%West

Shots

20West

Pass accuracy

53%West

Statistics

WestBrentford
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots9
8Corners1
9Fouls5
Shots
20Total Shots9
5On Target6
9Off Target2
6Blocked1
12Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
570Total Passes348
493Accurate Passes261
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls5
1Yellow Cards0

Premier League: West Ham 0–2 Brentford

Brentford beat West Ham 2-0 in Premier League on December 30, 2022.

Goals: I. Toney (18'), J. Dasilva (43').

West Ham controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.