West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

S. Benrahma 26' (pen)

O. Watkins 17'

3/12/2023

Premier League · Round 27London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Ham43%

×Draw25%

Aston Villa32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.26

West Ham

1.52

Aston Villa

1.26

West Ham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.39

creates per match

1.17

1.35

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

West Ham

1.39

Aston Villa

1.17

allows per match

West Ham

1.35

Aston Villa

1.66

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

West Ham+0.04on par

Aston Villa+0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

68%

West Ham or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

57%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

21%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

45%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

72%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

58%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.35 · 30 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.39 + Aston Villa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aston Villa attack 1.17 + West Ham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Ham scores more

43%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

32%

West Ham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Emerson

West Ham · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

O. Watkins↳ Álex Moreno

26'

Lucas PaquetáPenalty confirmed

26'

S. BenrahmaPenalty

64'

B. Traoré← L. Bailey

64'

L. Digne← Álex Moreno

70'

Lucas Paquetá

73'

Emiliano BuendíaPenalty cancelled

76'

Pablo Fornals← Lucas Paquetá

80'

A. Young← M. Cash

80'

J. Durán← E. Buendía

85'

C. Chambers← O. Watkins

86'

M. Cornet← D. Ings

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestAston

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots12

2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.58

12Corners2

9Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots12

6On Target4

8Off Target4

3Blocked4

12Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

352Total Passes545

290Accurate Passes474

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

6Offsides1