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West Chester United vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

West Chester United
West Chester Unitedadvanced
FT
2 – 1
New York RB III
New York RB III
Unknown 35', 17'
Unknown 23'
7/17/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsEvergreen Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

West Chester United47%
×Draw28%
New York RB III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Chester United
1.33
New York RB III
0.89

West Chester United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Chester United
1.58
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

West Chester United
0.71
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

West Chester United+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Chester United ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

West Chester United or draw
75%
West Chester United or New York RB III
72%
Draw or New York RB III
53%

Winning margin

West Chester United wins by 2+
22%
New York RB III wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

West Chester United 1+ goals
74%
West Chester United 2+ goals
38%
West Chester United 3+ goals
15%
New York RB III 1+ goals
59%
New York RB III 2+ goals
22%
New York RB III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

West Chester United (draw refunded)
65%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Chester United at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Chester United attack 1.58 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

New York RB III attack 1.07 + West Chester United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Chester United scores more
47%
level
28%
New York RB III scores more
25%

West Chester United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Chester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
23'
35'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: West Chester United 2–1 New York RB III

West Chester United beat New York RB III 2-1 in USL League Two on July 17, 2021.

Goals: ? (17', 23', 35').

The match was played at Evergreen Sports Complex in Leesburg, Virginia.