West Chester United 0–2 Maryland Bobcats

West Chester United

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maryland Bobcats

3/19/2024

US Open Cup · 1st RoundYSC Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

West Chester United36%

×Draw23%

Maryland Bobcats41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Chester UnitedExpected goals in this matchMaryland Bobcats

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.75

West Chester United

1.63

Maryland Bobcats

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

2.50

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

West Chester United

1.00

Maryland Bobcats

1.00

allows per match

West Chester United

2.50

Maryland Bobcats

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Chester United+0.00on par

Maryland Bobcats+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Chester United ↓

Maryland Bobcats →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

West Chester United or draw

59%

West Chester United or Maryland Bobcats

77%

Draw or Maryland Bobcats

64%

Winning margin

West Chester United wins by 2+

18%

Maryland Bobcats wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

West Chester United 1+ goals

80%

West Chester United 2+ goals

48%

West Chester United 3+ goals

22%

Maryland Bobcats 1+ goals

83%

Maryland Bobcats 2+ goals

52%

Maryland Bobcats 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

West Chester United (draw refunded)

47%

Maryland Bobcats (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

West Chester United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Maryland Bobcats away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

West Chester United attack 1.00 + Maryland Bobcats defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Maryland Bobcats attack 1.00 + West Chester United defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Chester United scores more

36%

level

23%

Maryland Bobcats scores more

41%

Maryland Bobcats at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maryland Bobcats will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff