West Bromwich Albion W 6–0 Worcester City W

West Bromwich Albion W

6 – 0

Worcester City W

11/24/2024

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Valley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

West Bromwich Albion W45%

×Draw19%

Worcester City W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Bromwich Albion WExpected goals in this matchWorcester City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

2.35

West Bromwich Albion W

2.59

Worcester City W

2.35

West Bromwich Albion W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

2.93

creates per match

2.50

2.21

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.93

Worcester City W

2.50

allows per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.21

Worcester City W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par

Worcester City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Bromwich Albion W ↓

Worcester City W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

West Bromwich Albion W or draw

63%

West Bromwich Albion W or Worcester City W

81%

Draw or Worcester City W

55%

Winning margin

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+

27%

Worcester City W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals

92%

West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals

73%

West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals

47%

Worcester City W 1+ goals

90%

Worcester City W 2+ goals

68%

Worcester City W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)

55%

Worcester City W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

West Bromwich Albion W at home — creates 2.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Worcester City W away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

West Bromwich Albion W attack 2.93 + Worcester City W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.59

Worcester City W attack 2.50 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Bromwich Albion W scores more

45%

level

19%

Worcester City W scores more

37%

West Bromwich Albion W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff