West Bromwich Albion W 3–0 Needham Market W

West Bromwich Albion W

AET

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Needham Market W

11/26/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Valley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

West Bromwich Albion W64%

×Draw16%

Needham Market W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Bromwich Albion WExpected goals in this matchNeedham Market W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.77

West Bromwich Albion W

3.13

Needham Market W

1.77

West Bromwich Albion W creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.93

creates per match

1.33

2.21

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.93

Needham Market W

1.33

allows per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.21

Needham Market W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par

Needham Market W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Bromwich Albion W ↓

Needham Market W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

West Bromwich Albion W or draw

80%

West Bromwich Albion W or Needham Market W

84%

Draw or Needham Market W

36%

Winning margin

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+

44%

Needham Market W wins by 2+

Team goals

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals

95%

West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals

81%

West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals

59%

Needham Market W 1+ goals

83%

Needham Market W 2+ goals

53%

Needham Market W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)

76%

Needham Market W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

West Bromwich Albion W at home — creates 2.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Needham Market W away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

West Bromwich Albion W attack 2.93 + Needham Market W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.13

Needham Market W attack 1.33 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

West Bromwich Albion W scores more

64%

level

16%

Needham Market W scores more

20%

West Bromwich Albion W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff