Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

West Bromwich Albion W vs Lincoln City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

West Bromwich Albion W
West Bromwich Albion W
FT
5 – 2
Lincoln City W
Lincoln City W
4/4/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundCentral Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

West Bromwich Albion W58%
×Draw17%
Lincoln City W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Bromwich Albion W
3.16
Lincoln City W
2.10

West Bromwich Albion W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

creates per match

West Bromwich Albion W
2.93
Lincoln City W
2.00

allows per match

West Bromwich Albion W
2.21
Lincoln City W
3.38

finishing

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par
Lincoln City W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Bromwich Albion W ↓

Lincoln City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

West Bromwich Albion W or draw
75%
West Bromwich Albion W or Lincoln City W
83%
Draw or Lincoln City W
42%

Winning margin

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+
39%
Lincoln City W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals
96%
West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals
82%
West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals
59%
Lincoln City W 1+ goals
88%
Lincoln City W 2+ goals
62%
Lincoln City W 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)
70%
Lincoln City W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Bromwich Albion W at home — creates 2.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Lincoln City W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Bromwich Albion W attack 2.93 + Lincoln City W defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 3.16

Lincoln City W attack 2.00 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

West Bromwich Albion W scores more
58%
level
17%
Lincoln City W scores more
25%

West Bromwich Albion W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: West Bromwich Albion W 5–2 Lincoln City W

West Bromwich Albion W beat Lincoln City W 5-2 in FA Women's Cup on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Central Ground in Sutton Coldfield, West Midlands.