West Bromwich Albion W 2–0 Cheadle Town W

West Bromwich Albion W

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cheadle Town W

12/8/2024

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Valley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

West Bromwich Albion W53%

×Draw19%

Cheadle Town W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West Bromwich Albion WExpected goals in this matchCheadle Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.77

West Bromwich Albion W

2.46

Cheadle Town W

1.77

West Bromwich Albion W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.93

creates per match

1.33

2.21

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.93

Cheadle Town W

1.33

allows per match

West Bromwich Albion W

2.21

Cheadle Town W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par

Cheadle Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Bromwich Albion W ↓

Cheadle Town W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

West Bromwich Albion W or draw

72%

West Bromwich Albion W or Cheadle Town W

81%

Draw or Cheadle Town W

47%

Winning margin

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+

33%

Cheadle Town W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals

91%

West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals

70%

West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals

44%

Cheadle Town W 1+ goals

83%

Cheadle Town W 2+ goals

53%

Cheadle Town W 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)

65%

Cheadle Town W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

West Bromwich Albion W at home — creates 2.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Cheadle Town W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

West Bromwich Albion W attack 2.93 + Cheadle Town W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Cheadle Town W attack 1.33 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Bromwich Albion W scores more

53%

level

19%

Cheadle Town W scores more

28%

West Bromwich Albion W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff