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West Bromwich Albion W vs Cambridge United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

West Bromwich Albion W
West Bromwich Albion W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cambridge United W
Cambridge United W
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

West Bromwich Albion W53%
×Draw19%
Cambridge United W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Bromwich Albion W
2.46
Cambridge United W
1.77

West Bromwich Albion W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

creates per match

West Bromwich Albion W
2.93
Cambridge United W
1.33

allows per match

West Bromwich Albion W
2.21
Cambridge United W
2.00

finishing

West Bromwich Albion W+0.00on par
Cambridge United W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Bromwich Albion W ↓

Cambridge United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

West Bromwich Albion W or draw
72%
West Bromwich Albion W or Cambridge United W
81%
Draw or Cambridge United W
47%

Winning margin

West Bromwich Albion W wins by 2+
33%
Cambridge United W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

West Bromwich Albion W 1+ goals
91%
West Bromwich Albion W 2+ goals
70%
West Bromwich Albion W 3+ goals
44%
Cambridge United W 1+ goals
83%
Cambridge United W 2+ goals
53%
Cambridge United W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

West Bromwich Albion W (draw refunded)
65%
Cambridge United W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Bromwich Albion W at home — creates 2.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

Cambridge United W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Bromwich Albion W attack 2.93 + Cambridge United W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Cambridge United W attack 1.33 + West Bromwich Albion W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Bromwich Albion W scores more
53%
level
19%
Cambridge United W scores more
28%

West Bromwich Albion W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Bromwich Albion W vs Cambridge United W

West Bromwich Albion W beat Cambridge United W 2-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.