West Brom 4–2 West Ham: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

West Ham

N. Chadli 56', 8' (pen)

J. McClean 44'

S. Rondón 37'

M. Lanzini 65' (pen)

M. Antonio 61'

9/17/2016

Premier League · Round 5The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom38%

×Draw26%

West Ham36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.35

West Brom

1.38

West Ham

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 198 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

1.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

64%

West Brom or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

62%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

17%

West Ham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

40%

West Brom 3+ goals

16%

West Ham 1+ goals

74%

West Ham 2+ goals

39%

West Ham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

51%

West Ham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Ham attack 1.21 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Brom scores more

38%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

36%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Payet

West Ham · M

9.1

Match Events

8'

N. ChadliPenalty

37'

S. Rondón↳ N. Chadli

43'

Craig Dawson

44'

J. McClean↳ N. Chadli

46'

S. Feghouli← M. Noble

46'

J. Calleri← S. Zaza

56'

N. Chadli↳ S. Rondón

61'

M. Antonio↳ D. Payet

65'

M. LanziniPenalty

68'

A. Nyom← B. Galloway

75'

J. Morrison← N. Chadli

77'

A. Fletcher← A. Masuaku

86'

Allan Nyom

86'

Sofiane Feghouli

87'

H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWest

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots23

2Corners6

14Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots23

6On Target5

2Off Target9

0Blocked9

6Inside Box15

2Outside Box8

Passing

29%Possession71%

260Total Passes622

183Accurate Passes555

70%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1