West Brom 0–3 West Ham: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

West Ham

M. Noble 79', 45+2'

C. Kouyaté 34'

4/30/2016

Premier League · Round 36The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom38%

×Draw26%

West Ham36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.35

West Brom

1.38

West Ham

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 198 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

1.50

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

West Ham

1.21

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

West Ham

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

64%

West Brom or West Ham

74%

Draw or West Ham

62%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

17%

West Ham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

40%

West Brom 3+ goals

16%

West Ham 1+ goals

74%

West Ham 2+ goals

39%

West Ham 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

51%

West Ham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 198 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + West Ham defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

West Ham attack 1.21 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Brom scores more

38%

level

26%

West Ham scores more

36%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Noble

West Ham · M

9.2

Match Events

34'

C. Kouyaté↳ D. Payet

45+2'

M. Noble↳ C. Kouyaté

61'

S. Berahino← J. McClean

62'

Sandro← C. Yacob

66'

E. Emenike← D. Sakho

78'

S. Sessègnon← C. Gardner

79'

M. Noble↳ A. Carroll

81'

V. Moses← D. Payet

87'

R. Oxford← M. Lanzini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestWest

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots8

8Corners6

0Fouls0

Shots

15Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target2

3Blocked2

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

332Total Passes494

223Accurate Passes392

67%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

0Fouls0

3Offsides1