West Brom 0–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

J. Clasie 25'

4/8/2017

Premier League · Round 32The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom40%

×Draw26%

Southampton35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.29

West Brom

1.40

Southampton

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 168 away

1.15

creates per match

1.08

1.50

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

65%

West Brom or Southampton

74%

Draw or Southampton

60%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

18%

Southampton wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

41%

West Brom 3+ goals

17%

Southampton 1+ goals

72%

Southampton 2+ goals

37%

Southampton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

53%

Southampton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Southampton attack 1.08 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Brom scores more

40%

level

26%

Southampton scores more

35%

West Brom at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Redmond

Southampton · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

36'

49'

53'

62'

J. McClean← M. Phillips

66'

H. Robson-Kanu← D. Fletcher

71'

S. McQueen← J. Ward-Prowse

71'

76'

85'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestSouthampton

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots10

7Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target3

7Off Target3

4Blocked4

11Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

383Total Passes549

280Accurate Passes448

73%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0