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West Brom vs Nottingham Forest — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
2/12/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

West Brom42%
×Draw28%
Nottingham Forest30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.31
Nottingham Forest
1.05

West Brom creates 25% more chances

Season form · 162 home / 95 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.60
Nottingham Forest
1.14

allows per match

West Brom
0.96
Nottingham Forest
1.01

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Nottingham Forest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
70%
West Brom or Nottingham Forest
72%
Draw or Nottingham Forest
58%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
19%
Nottingham Forest wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
73%
West Brom 2+ goals
38%
West Brom 3+ goals
14%
Nottingham Forest 1+ goals
65%
Nottingham Forest 2+ goals
28%
Nottingham Forest 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
59%
Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 162 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.60 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nottingham Forest attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Brom scores more
42%
level
28%
Nottingham Forest scores more
30%

West Brom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: West Brom 2–2 Nottingham Forest

West Brom and Nottingham Forest drew 2-2 in Championship on February 12, 2019.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.