West Brom 0–5 Norwich: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

M. Kvistgaarden 89'

B. Chrisene 73'

A. Slimane 69'

A. Ahmed 49'

O. Schwartau 16'

1/20/2026

Championship · Round 28The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

West Brom43%

×Draw27%

Norwich29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.05

West Brom

1.33

Norwich

1.05

West Brom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.41

creates per match

1.38

0.72

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

West Brom

1.41

Norwich

1.38

allows per match

West Brom

0.72

Norwich

1.26

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.03on par

Norwich+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

71%

West Brom or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

57%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

20%

Norwich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

74%

West Brom 2+ goals

38%

West Brom 3+ goals

15%

Norwich 1+ goals

65%

Norwich 2+ goals

28%

Norwich 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

59%

Norwich (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.72 · 16 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.41 + Norwich defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Norwich attack 1.38 + West Brom defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

West Brom scores more

43%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

29%

West Brom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Chrisene

Norwich · D

8.6

Match Events

14'

Callum Styles

16'

O. Schwartau↳ K. McLean

23'

Krystian Bielik

46'

J. Wallace← I. Price

46'

J. Molumby← N. Phillips

46'

A. Heggebo← J. Maja

46'

J. Cordoba← H. Darling

46'

A. Slimane← T. Springett

49'

A. Ahmed↳ A. Slimane

63'

A. Mowatt← C. Styles

63'

P. A. Diallo← A. Ahmed

69'

A. Slimane

70'

M. Kvistgaarden← J. Makama

72'

Michael Johnston

73'

B. Chrisene

80'

G. Campbell← K. Bielik

80'

J. Stacey← B. Chrisene

87'

Vladan Kovačević

89'

M. Kvistgaarden↳ P. A. Diallo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestNorwich

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots9

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.83

10Corners2

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target7

7Off Target1

4Blocked1

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

413Total Passes400

330Accurate Passes323

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2