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West Brom vs Burnley — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
Preview
11:00
Burnley
Burnley
8/23/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2The Hawthorns
Big match
45%
Burnley
model favours
27%28%45%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

West Brom27%
×Draw28%
Burnley45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
0.96
Burnley
1.33

Burnley creates 39% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.31
Burnley
1.67

allows per match

West Brom
1.00
Burnley
0.60

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
55%
West Brom or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
73%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
10%
Burnley wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
62%
West Brom 2+ goals
25%
West Brom 3+ goals
7%
Burnley 1+ goals
74%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
37%
Burnley (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.31 + Burnley defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.96

Burnley attack 1.67 + West Brom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Brom scores more
27%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
45%

Burnley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • West Brom fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Brom
WLDWW
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Brom face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with West Brom hosting Burnley. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

West Brom host Burnley at The Hawthorns.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.