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Burnley vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
H. Robson-Kanu 71'
8/19/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Burnley41%
×Draw28%
West Brom31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.27
West Brom
1.07

Burnley creates 19% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 93 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.04
West Brom
0.83

allows per match

Burnley
1.31
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
69%
Burnley or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
59%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
18%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
72%
Burnley 2+ goals
36%
Burnley 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
66%
West Brom 2+ goals
29%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
57%
West Brom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 0.83 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burnley scores more
41%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
31%

Burnley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
H. Robson-KanuWest BromWest Brom · F
7.4

Match Events

63'
H. Robson-Kanu← J. McClean
71'
H. Robson-Kanu↳ M. Phillips
78'
J. Walters← R. Brady
79'
A. Barnes← J. Guðmunds­son
83'
Hal Robson-Kanu
86'
S. Rondón← S. Field
90'
Ashley Barnes

Possession

67%Burnley

Shots

20Burnley

Pass accuracy

59%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyWest
Overview
67%Possession33%
20Total Shots8
5Corners5
11Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots8
0On Target1
15Off Target5
5Blocked2
11Inside Box5
9Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
471Total Passes228
374Accurate Passes127
79%Pass Accuracy56%
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Premier League: Burnley 0–1 West Brom

West Brom beat Burnley 1-0 in Premier League on August 19, 2017.

Goals: H. Robson-Kanu (71').

Burnley controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.