West Brom 4–0 Burnley: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Burnley

S. Rondón 64'

D. Fletcher 37'

J. Morrison 16'

M. Phillips 4'

11/21/2016

Premier League · Round 12The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom41%

×Draw26%

Burnley33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

West Brom

1.42

Burnley

1.23

West Brom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 156 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

1.50

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

67%

West Brom or Burnley

74%

Draw or Burnley

59%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

20%

Burnley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

76%

West Brom 2+ goals

41%

West Brom 3+ goals

17%

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

35%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

56%

Burnley (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Burnley attack 0.96 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Brom scores more

41%

level

26%

Burnley scores more

33%

West Brom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Rondón

West Brom · F

7.9

Match Events

4'

M. Phillips

16'

J. Morrison↳ S. Rondón

37'

D. Fletcher↳ M. Phillips

46'

A. Barnes← S. Defour

64'

S. Rondón↳ A. Nyom

70'

A. Gray← S. Vokes

75'

J. McClean← M. Phillips

79'

H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón

79'

G. Boyd← J. Guðmundsson

83'

C. Gardner← J. Morrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBurnley

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots5

4Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target2

8Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box2

9Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

401Total Passes482

313Accurate Passes389

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Offsides3