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West Brom vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
Preview
15:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
11/28/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18The Hawthorns
Big match
53%
West Brom
model favours
53%27%20%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

West Brom53%
×Draw27%
Bristol City20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.45
Bristol City
0.79

West Brom creates 84% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.49
Bristol City
0.99

allows per match

West Brom
0.59
Bristol City
1.41

finishing

West Brom+0.01on par
Bristol City-0.09on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
80%
West Brom or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
47%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
27%
Bristol City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
77%
West Brom 2+ goals
42%
West Brom 3+ goals
18%
Bristol City 1+ goals
55%
Bristol City 2+ goals
19%
Bristol City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
72%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.59 · 10 matches

Bristol City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.41 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.49 + Bristol City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bristol City attack 0.99 + West Brom defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

West Brom scores more
53%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
20%

West Brom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches
  • West Brom fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
West Brom
Possession-dominant
Bristol City
Balanced
56%Possession49%
82%Pass accuracy78%
14.0Shots11.2
1.48xGBiggest gap1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
West BromBristol City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
West Brom
0
Draws
2
Bristol City
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
1–01–21–22–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Brom
WLDWW
City
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Brom face Bristol City (Championship)

Championship returns with West Brom hosting Bristol City. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

West Brom host Bristol City at The Hawthorns.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.