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Bristol City vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
H. Roberts 90+6'
N. Wells 56'
A. Mowatt 62'
4/8/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bristol City24%
×Draw27%
West Brom50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
0.91
West Brom
1.46

West Brom creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.02
West Brom
1.49

allows per match

Bristol City
1.42
West Brom
0.79

finishing

Bristol City-0.02on par
West Brom-0.60scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
50%
Bristol City or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
76%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
8%
West Brom wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
60%
Bristol City 2+ goals
23%
Bristol City 3+ goals
6%
West Brom 1+ goals
77%
West Brom 2+ goals
43%
West Brom 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
32%
West Brom (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 21 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.02 + West Brom defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

West Brom attack 1.49 + Bristol City defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bristol City scores more
24%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
50%

West Brom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
N. WellsBristol CityBristol City · F
7.9

Match Events

56'
N. Wells↳ C. Pring
62'
A. Mowatt
65'
O. Diakité← A. Mowatt
65'
T. Bany← J. Swift
65'
T. Fellows← I. Price
65'
D. Dike← A. Armstrong
75'
Y. Hirakawa← M. Sykes
75'
S. Armstrong← N. Wells
75'
J. Williams← M. McGuane
75'
H. Roberts← R. McCrorie
80'
M. Johnston← K. Ahearne-Grant
81'
Cameron Pring
83'
G. Tanner← M. Bird
89'
Jayson Molumby
90+1'
Tammer Bany
90+6'
H. Roberts↳ R. Dickie

Possession

53%Bristol

Shots

12Bristol

Pass accuracy

51%Bristol

Statistics

BristolWest
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots13
0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.89
4Corners5
8Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots13
7On Target5
1Off Target4
4Blocked4
8Inside Box12
4Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
536Total Passes470
454Accurate Passes389
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
-1.04Goals Prevented-1.04
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs West Brom

Bristol City beat West Brom 2-1 in Championship on April 8, 2025.

Goals: N. Wells (56'), A. Mowatt (62'), H. Roberts (90+6').

Bristol City controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.