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West Brom vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
11/27/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

West Brom46%
×Draw27%
Bristol City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.36
Bristol City
0.98

West Brom creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.38
Bristol City
1.11

allows per match

West Brom
0.84
Bristol City
1.35

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par
Bristol City-0.02on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
73%
West Brom or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
54%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
21%
Bristol City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
74%
West Brom 2+ goals
39%
West Brom 3+ goals
16%
Bristol City 1+ goals
62%
Bristol City 2+ goals
26%
Bristol City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
63%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bristol City attack 1.11 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Brom scores more
46%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
27%

West Brom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Brom vs Bristol City

West Brom beat Bristol City 4-1 in Championship on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.