West Brom 1–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bournemouth

G. McAuley 79'

C. Daniels 87' (pen)

A. Smith 52'

12/19/2015

Premier League · Round 17The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom42%

×Draw25%

Bournemouth33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.33

West Brom

1.53

Bournemouth

1.33

West Brom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 141 away

1.15

creates per match

1.16

1.50

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Bournemouth

1.16

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Bournemouth

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

67%

West Brom or Bournemouth

75%

Draw or Bournemouth

58%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

21%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

78%

West Brom 2+ goals

45%

West Brom 3+ goals

20%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

74%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

38%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

56%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.92 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Bournemouth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bournemouth attack 1.16 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Brom scores more

42%

level

25%

Bournemouth scores more

33%

West Brom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Smith

Bournemouth · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

James McClean

39'

Jonny Evans

46'

S. Sessègnon← J. Morrison

52'

A. Smith↳ A. Surman

64'

Darren Fletcher

70'

M. Pugh← J. Stanislas

74'

R. Lambert← C. Brunt

76'

Y. Kermorgant← G. Murray

79'

G. McAuley↳ C. Gardner

82'

T. Rantie← H. Arter

87'

C. DanielsPenalty

90'

Salomón Rondón

90'

Adam Smith

90+1'

S. Berahino← D. Fletcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestBournemouth

Overview

32%Possession68%

7Total Shots16

4Corners8

0Fouls0

Shots

7Total Shots16

2On Target6

2Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box7

2Outside Box9

Passing

32%Possession68%

257Total Passes552

183Accurate Passes490

71%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards1

2Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: West Brom vs Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat West Brom 2-1 in Premier League on December 19, 2015.

Goals: A. Smith (52'), G. McAuley (79'), C. Daniels (87' pen).

Bournemouth controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.

West Brom vs Bournemouth — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: West Brom vs Bournemouth