Bournemouth 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

C. Wilson 79'

9/10/2016

Premier League · Round 4Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Bournemouth45%

×Draw26%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Bournemouth

1.46

West Brom

1.13

Bournemouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 94 away

1.41

creates per match

0.84

1.42

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.41

West Brom

0.84

allows per match

Bournemouth

1.42

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

71%

Bournemouth or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

77%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

43%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

18%

West Brom 1+ goals

68%

West Brom 2+ goals

31%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

60%

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.42 · 143 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.51 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.41 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

West Brom attack 0.84 + Bournemouth defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bournemouth scores more

45%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

29%

Bournemouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. Cook

Bournemouth · D

7.8

Match Events

53'

Claudio Yacob

63'

J. Wilshere← J. Ibe

63'

S. Rondón← S. Berahino

71'

Adam Smith

72'

C. Gardner← D. Fletcher

74'

D. Gosling← J. Stanislas

74'

M. Gradel← J. King

79'

C. Wilson↳ A. Smith

82'

J. Leko← C. Yacob

89'

Jonny Evans

90'

Samuel Field

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthWest

Overview

63%Possession37%

12Total Shots12

10Corners5

9Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target2

5Off Target6

2Blocked4

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

477Total Passes272

399Accurate Passes186

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1