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West Brom vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

West Brom
West Brom
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
3/29/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

West Brom46%
×Draw29%
Birmingham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.25
Birmingham
0.82

West Brom creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 13 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.38
Birmingham
0.81

allows per match

West Brom
0.84
Birmingham
1.13

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par
Birmingham-0.19scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
76%
West Brom or Birmingham
71%
Draw or Birmingham
54%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
21%
Birmingham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
71%
West Brom 2+ goals
36%
West Brom 3+ goals
13%
Birmingham 1+ goals
56%
Birmingham 2+ goals
20%
Birmingham 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
66%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Birmingham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Birmingham attack 0.81 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

West Brom scores more
46%
level
29%
Birmingham scores more
24%

West Brom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: West Brom 3–2 Birmingham

West Brom beat Birmingham 3-2 in Championship on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.