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Birmingham vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
10/6/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Birmingham43%
×Draw27%
West Brom31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.39
West Brom
1.14

Birmingham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.64
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Birmingham
1.09
West Brom
1.14

finishing

Birmingham-0.14scores less
West Brom-0.35scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
69%
Birmingham or West Brom
73%
Draw or West Brom
57%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
20%
West Brom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham 2+ goals
40%
Birmingham 3+ goals
16%
West Brom 1+ goals
68%
West Brom 2+ goals
32%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
58%
West Brom (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.64 + West Brom defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

West Brom attack 1.19 + Birmingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Birmingham scores more
43%
level
27%
West Brom scores more
31%

Birmingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Birmingham 3–1 West Brom

Birmingham beat West Brom 3-1 in Championship on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at St Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.