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West Brom vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
12/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom38%
×Draw26%
Aston Villa35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.34
Aston Villa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 144 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.15
Aston Villa
1.04

allows per match

West Brom
1.50
Aston Villa
1.53

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
65%
West Brom or Aston Villa
74%
Draw or Aston Villa
62%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
17%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
74%
West Brom 2+ goals
39%
West Brom 3+ goals
15%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
72%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
36%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
52%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.53 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Aston Villa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aston Villa attack 1.04 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Brom scores more
38%
level
26%
Aston Villa scores more
35%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: West Brom 0–3 Aston Villa

Aston Villa beat West Brom 3-0 in Premier League on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.