West Brom vs Aston Villa — Championship 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
West Brom39%
Aston Villa34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 162 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
West Brom ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
West Brom at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.96 · 162 matches
Aston Villa away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
West Brom attack 1.60 + Aston Villa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30
Aston Villa attack 1.46 + West Brom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Norwich
Sheffield Utd
LeedsWest BromAston Villa
Derby
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
Nottingham Forest
Swansea
Brentford
Sheffield Wednesday
Hull City
Preston
Blackburn
Stoke City
Birmingham
Wigan
QPR
Reading
Millwall
Rotherham
Bolton
IpswichIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
West Brom host Aston Villa on Friday, 7 December 2018 at 20:00. The match is part of the Championship 2018/2019 season.
Championship: West Brom 2–2 Aston Villa
West Brom and Aston Villa drew 2-2 in Championship on December 7, 2018.
The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.