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West Armenia vs Masis — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
CANC
06:00
Masis
Masis
7/12/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

West Armenia66%
×Draw18%
Masis16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.54
Masis
1.19

West Armenia creates 113% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Masis
1.14

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Masis
2.57

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Masis+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Masis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
84%
West Armenia or Masis
82%
Draw or Masis
34%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
44%
Masis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
92%
West Armenia 2+ goals
72%
West Armenia 3+ goals
46%
Masis 1+ goals
70%
Masis 2+ goals
33%
Masis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
80%
Masis (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Masis away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Masis defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.54

Masis attack 1.14 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

West Armenia scores more
66%
level
18%
Masis scores more
16%

West Armenia at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: West Armenia host Masis

July 12, 2020: West Armenia take on Masis in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

West Armenia host Masis at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.