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West Armenia vs BKMA II — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
BKMA II
BKMA II
3/9/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 20Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

West Armenia42%
×Draw22%
BKMA II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
1.88
BKMA II
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 71 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
BKMA II
2.20

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
BKMA II
1.24

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

BKMA II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
64%
West Armenia or BKMA II
78%
Draw or BKMA II
58%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
23%
BKMA II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
85%
West Armenia 2+ goals
56%
West Armenia 3+ goals
29%
BKMA II 1+ goals
82%
BKMA II 2+ goals
51%
BKMA II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
54%
BKMA II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

BKMA II attack 2.20 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Armenia scores more
42%
level
22%
BKMA II scores more
36%

West Armenia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Armenia vs BKMA II

West Armenia beat BKMA II 2-0 in First League on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.