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West Armenia vs Ararat — Premier League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ararat
Ararat
10/19/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

West Armenia34%
×Draw24%
Ararat42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
1.43
Ararat
1.60

Ararat creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 107 away

creates per match

West Armenia
1.22
Ararat
1.14

allows per match

West Armenia
2.06
Ararat
1.64

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Ararat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Ararat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
58%
West Armenia or Ararat
76%
Draw or Ararat
66%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
16%
Ararat wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
76%
West Armenia 2+ goals
42%
West Armenia 3+ goals
17%
Ararat 1+ goals
80%
Ararat 2+ goals
47%
Ararat 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
45%
Ararat (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

Ararat away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 1.22 + Ararat defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ararat attack 1.14 + West Armenia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Armenia scores more
34%
level
24%
Ararat scores more
42%

Ararat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ararat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: West Armenia 0–2 Ararat

Ararat beat West Armenia 2-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Junior Sport Stadium in Yerevan.