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Ararat vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

Ararat
Ararat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Armenia
West Armenia
2/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ararat53%
×Draw24%
West Armenia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat
1.74
West Armenia
1.06

Ararat creates 64% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 31 away

creates per match

Ararat
1.09
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

Ararat
1.23
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

Ararat+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ararat or draw
77%
Ararat or West Armenia
76%
Draw or West Armenia
47%

Winning margin

Ararat wins by 2+
29%
West Armenia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ararat 1+ goals
82%
Ararat 2+ goals
52%
Ararat 3+ goals
25%
West Armenia 1+ goals
65%
West Armenia 2+ goals
29%
West Armenia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ararat (draw refunded)
70%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat attack 1.09 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.74

West Armenia attack 0.90 + Ararat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ararat scores more
53%
level
24%
West Armenia scores more
23%

Ararat at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ararat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ararat 1–0 West Armenia

Ararat beat West Armenia 1-0 in Premier League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.