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West Armenia vs Aragats — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
2 – 1
Aragats
Aragats
9/24/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

West Armenia59%
×Draw18%
Aragats23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
2.69
Aragats
1.65

West Armenia creates 63% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Aragats
2.07

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Aragats
2.86

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Aragats+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Aragats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
77%
West Armenia or Aragats
82%
Draw or Aragats
41%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
39%
Aragats wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
93%
West Armenia 2+ goals
74%
West Armenia 3+ goals
49%
Aragats 1+ goals
81%
Aragats 2+ goals
49%
Aragats 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
72%
Aragats (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Aragats away — creates 2.07, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Aragats defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.69

Aragats attack 2.07 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

West Armenia scores more
59%
level
18%
Aragats scores more
23%

West Armenia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: West Armenia 2–1 Aragats

West Armenia beat Aragats 2-1 in First League on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.