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West Armenia vs Ani Yerevan — First League 2019

West Armenia
West Armenia
FT
3 – 1
Ani Yerevan
Ani Yerevan
11/21/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

West Armenia75%
×Draw13%
Ani Yerevan11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Armenia
3.23
Ani Yerevan
1.22

West Armenia creates 165% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 14 away

creates per match

West Armenia
2.52
Ani Yerevan
1.21

allows per match

West Armenia
1.23
Ani Yerevan
3.93

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par
Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Ani Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw
89%
West Armenia or Ani Yerevan
87%
Draw or Ani Yerevan
25%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+
56%
Ani Yerevan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals
96%
West Armenia 2+ goals
82%
West Armenia 3+ goals
61%
Ani Yerevan 1+ goals
70%
Ani Yerevan 2+ goals
34%
Ani Yerevan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)
87%
Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 2.52 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.23

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + West Armenia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

West Armenia scores more
75%
level
13%
Ani Yerevan scores more
11%

West Armenia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: West Armenia 3–1 Ani Yerevan

West Armenia beat Ani Yerevan 3-1 in First League on November 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.