West Adelaide 0–5 West Torrens Birkalla

West Adelaide

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

West Torrens Birkalla

5/25/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 12ServiceFM Stadium Artificial Pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

West Adelaide42%

×Draw22%

West Torrens Birkalla36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchWest Torrens Birkalla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.67

West Adelaide

1.81

West Torrens Birkalla

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

2.00

creates per match

1.86

1.48

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

West Adelaide

2.00

West Torrens Birkalla

1.86

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.48

West Torrens Birkalla

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

64%

West Adelaide or West Torrens Birkalla

78%

Draw or West Torrens Birkalla

58%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

22%

West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

84%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

54%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

27%

West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals

81%

West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals

50%

West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

54%

West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Adelaide scores more

42%

level

22%

West Torrens Birkalla scores more

36%

West Adelaide at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff