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West Adelaide vs South Adelaide Panthers — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Adelaide Panthers
South Adelaide Panthers
8/5/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 21West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

West Adelaide44%
×Draw21%
South Adelaide Panthers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
2.01
South Adelaide Panthers
1.75

West Adelaide creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 52 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
South Adelaide Panthers
1.60

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
South Adelaide Panthers
2.46

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
66%
West Adelaide or South Adelaide Panthers
79%
Draw or South Adelaide Panthers
56%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
25%
South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
87%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
59%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
32%
South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals
83%
South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals
52%
South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
56%
South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.01

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.60 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

West Adelaide scores more
44%
level
21%
South Adelaide Panthers scores more
34%

West Adelaide at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: West Adelaide 0–1 South Adelaide Panthers

South Adelaide Panthers beat West Adelaide 1-0 in South Australia NPL on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.