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West Adelaide vs Playford City Patriots — South Australia NPL 2026

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
Preview
09:30
Playford City Patriots
Playford City Patriots
8/15/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 22Kilburn Sportsplex
Big match
42%
Playford City Patriots
model favours
35%23%42%

Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

West Adelaide35%
×Draw23%
Playford City Patriots42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.57
Playford City Patriots
1.73

Playford City Patriots creates 10% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
1.56
Playford City Patriots
1.58

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.89
Playford City Patriots
1.58

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Playford City Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
58%
West Adelaide or Playford City Patriots
77%
Draw or Playford City Patriots
65%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
17%
Playford City Patriots wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
79%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
46%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
21%
Playford City Patriots 1+ goals
82%
Playford City Patriots 2+ goals
52%
Playford City Patriots 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
46%
Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 1.56 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Playford City Patriots attack 1.58 + West Adelaide defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Adelaide scores more
35%
level
23%
Playford City Patriots scores more
42%

Playford City Patriots at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Playford City Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Adelaide
LDDLW
Patriots
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Adelaide face Playford City Patriots (South Australia NPL)

South Australia NPL returns with West Adelaide hosting Playford City Patriots. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

West Adelaide host Playford City Patriots at Kilburn Sportsplex.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.