West Adelaide 1–5 Playford City Patriots

West Adelaide

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Playford City Patriots

4/27/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 8Steve Woodcock Sports Centre Pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

West Adelaide40%

×Draw23%

Playford City Patriots37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchPlayford City Patriots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.68

West Adelaide

1.74

Playford City Patriots

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

2.00

creates per match

1.87

1.48

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

West Adelaide

2.00

Playford City Patriots

1.87

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.48

Playford City Patriots

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Playford City Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Playford City Patriots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

63%

West Adelaide or Playford City Patriots

77%

Draw or Playford City Patriots

60%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

21%

Playford City Patriots wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

82%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

52%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

25%

Playford City Patriots 1+ goals

81%

Playford City Patriots 2+ goals

50%

Playford City Patriots 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

52%

Playford City Patriots (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Playford City Patriots away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Playford City Patriots defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Playford City Patriots attack 1.87 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Adelaide scores more

40%

level

23%

Playford City Patriots scores more

37%

West Adelaide at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff