West Adelaide 3–2 Cumberland United: Result & Stats

West Adelaide

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cumberland United

7/26/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 19Kilburn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

West Adelaide47%

×Draw23%

Cumberland United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchCumberland United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.37

West Adelaide

1.79

Cumberland United

1.37

West Adelaide creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

2.00

creates per match

1.26

1.48

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

West Adelaide

2.00

Cumberland United

1.26

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.48

Cumberland United

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Cumberland United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

70%

West Adelaide or Cumberland United

77%

Draw or Cumberland United

53%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

26%

Cumberland United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

83%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

53%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

26%

Cumberland United 1+ goals

75%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

40%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

62%

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Cumberland United away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Cumberland United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Cumberland United attack 1.26 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Adelaide scores more

47%

level

23%

Cumberland United scores more

30%

West Adelaide at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff