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West Adelaide vs Adelaide University — South Australia State League 1 2021

West Adelaide
West Adelaide
FT
1 – 1
Adelaide University
Adelaide University
5/21/2022South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 11West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

West Adelaide57%
×Draw22%
Adelaide University21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Adelaide
1.96
Adelaide University
1.10

West Adelaide creates 78% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

creates per match

West Adelaide
2.00
Adelaide University
0.73

allows per match

West Adelaide
1.48
Adelaide University
1.91

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par
Adelaide University+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw
79%
West Adelaide or Adelaide University
78%
Draw or Adelaide University
43%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+
34%
Adelaide University wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals
86%
West Adelaide 2+ goals
58%
West Adelaide 3+ goals
31%
Adelaide University 1+ goals
67%
Adelaide University 2+ goals
30%
Adelaide University 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)
73%
Adelaide University (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Adelaide University away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Adelaide University defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

Adelaide University attack 0.73 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

West Adelaide scores more
57%
level
22%
Adelaide University scores more
21%

West Adelaide at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Adelaide vs Adelaide University

West Adelaide and Adelaide University drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at West Beach Parks Football Centre in Adelaide.