Wesseling-Urfeld 2–0 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Wesseling-Urfeld

FT

2 – 0

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

10/24/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 12Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wesseling-Urfeld29%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wesseling-UrfeldExpected goals in this matchViktoria Arnoldsweiler

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.42

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.79

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

2.42

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

1.00

creates per match

1.36

3.47

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Wesseling-Urfeld

1.00

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.36

allows per match

Wesseling-Urfeld

3.47

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wesseling-Urfeld ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Wesseling-Urfeld or draw

48%

Wesseling-Urfeld or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

80%

Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

71%

Winning margin

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+

14%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals

83%

Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals

53%

Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals

26%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

91%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

69%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)

36%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wesseling-Urfeld at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.47 · 19 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more

29%

level

20%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

52%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Viktoria Arnoldsweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff