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Wesseling-Urfeld vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Wesseling-Urfeld
Wesseling-Urfeld
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
6/6/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 33Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wesseling-Urfeld22%
×Draw19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.50
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.49

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf creates 66% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
1.00
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
1.50

allows per match

Wesseling-Urfeld
3.47
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
2.00

finishing

Wesseling-Urfeld+0.00on par
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wesseling-Urfeld ↓

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Wesseling-Urfeld or draw
41%
Wesseling-Urfeld or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
81%
Draw or BCV Glesch / Paffendorf
78%

Winning margin

Wesseling-Urfeld wins by 2+
10%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Wesseling-Urfeld 1+ goals
78%
Wesseling-Urfeld 2+ goals
44%
Wesseling-Urfeld 3+ goals
19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 1+ goals
92%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 2+ goals
71%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Wesseling-Urfeld (draw refunded)
28%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wesseling-Urfeld at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.47 · 19 matches

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wesseling-Urfeld attack 1.00 + BCV Glesch / Paffendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf attack 1.50 + Wesseling-Urfeld defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wesseling-Urfeld scores more
22%
level
19%
BCV Glesch / Paffendorf scores more
59%

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "BCV Glesch / Paffendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wesseling-Urfeld vs BCV Glesch / Paffendorf

BCV Glesch / Paffendorf beat Wesseling-Urfeld 4-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on June 6, 2022.

The match was played at Ulrike-Meyfarth-Stadion in Wesseling.