Werribee City 3–3 Dandenong City: Result & Stats

Werribee City

FT

3 – 3

Dandenong City

3/11/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 4Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Werribee City30%

×Draw24%

Dandenong City46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werribee CityExpected goals in this matchDandenong City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.68

Werribee City

1.32

Dandenong City

1.68

Dandenong City creates 27% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 13 away

1.19

creates per match

1.38

1.98

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Werribee City

1.19

Dandenong City

1.38

allows per match

Werribee City

1.98

Dandenong City

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par

Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Dandenong City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw

54%

Werribee City or Dandenong City

76%

Draw or Dandenong City

70%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+

13%

Dandenong City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals

73%

Werribee City 2+ goals

38%

Werribee City 3+ goals

15%

Dandenong City 1+ goals

81%

Dandenong City 2+ goals

50%

Dandenong City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)

40%

Dandenong City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Dandenong City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dandenong City attack 1.38 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Werribee City scores more

30%

level

24%

Dandenong City scores more

46%

Dandenong City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff