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Werribee City vs Bulleen Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
2 – 1
Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
4/1/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Werribee City34%
×Draw24%
Bulleen Lions42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.44
Bulleen Lions
1.61

Bulleen Lions creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 66 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
Bulleen Lions
1.24

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
Bulleen Lions
1.70

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Bulleen Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
58%
Werribee City or Bulleen Lions
76%
Draw or Bulleen Lions
66%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
16%
Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
76%
Werribee City 2+ goals
42%
Werribee City 3+ goals
18%
Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
80%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
48%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
45%
Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Werribee City scores more
34%
level
24%
Bulleen Lions scores more
42%

Bulleen Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Werribee City 2–1 Bulleen Lions

Werribee City beat Bulleen Lions 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.