Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Werribee City vs Brunswick City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
6/14/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Werribee City34%
×Draw23%
Brunswick City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.52
Brunswick City
1.72

Brunswick City creates 13% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 68 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
Brunswick City
1.46

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
Brunswick City
1.84

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Brunswick City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
57%
Werribee City or Brunswick City
77%
Draw or Brunswick City
66%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
16%
Brunswick City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
78%
Werribee City 2+ goals
45%
Werribee City 3+ goals
20%
Brunswick City 1+ goals
82%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
51%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
45%
Brunswick City (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Brunswick City attack 1.46 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Werribee City scores more
34%
level
23%
Brunswick City scores more
43%

Brunswick City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werribee City vs Brunswick City

Werribee City beat Brunswick City 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.