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Werribee City vs Bentleigh Greens — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Werribee City
Werribee City
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
5/4/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12Galvin Park Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Werribee City29%
×Draw24%
Bentleigh Greens47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werribee City
1.30
Bentleigh Greens
1.70

Bentleigh Greens creates 31% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 26 away

creates per match

Werribee City
1.19
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

allows per match

Werribee City
1.98
Bentleigh Greens
1.42

finishing

Werribee City+0.00on par
Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werribee City ↓

Bentleigh Greens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Werribee City or draw
53%
Werribee City or Bentleigh Greens
76%
Draw or Bentleigh Greens
71%

Winning margin

Werribee City wins by 2+
13%
Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Werribee City 1+ goals
73%
Werribee City 2+ goals
37%
Werribee City 3+ goals
14%
Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
82%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
51%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Werribee City (draw refunded)
39%
Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werribee City at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werribee City attack 1.19 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Werribee City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Werribee City scores more
29%
level
24%
Bentleigh Greens scores more
47%

Bentleigh Greens at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Werribee City vs Bentleigh Greens

Werribee City and Bentleigh Greens drew 2-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Galvin Park Reserve in Werribee.