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Werder Bremen vs Cercle Brugge — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
CANC
13:00
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
1/8/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pinatar Arena Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Werder Bremen55%
×Draw22%
Cercle Brugge23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen
1.95
Cercle Brugge
1.20

Werder Bremen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen
1.80
Cercle Brugge
1.40

allows per match

Werder Bremen
1.00
Cercle Brugge
2.10

finishing

Werder Bremen+0.00on par
Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Werder Bremen or draw
77%
Werder Bremen or Cercle Brugge
78%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
45%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen wins by 2+
32%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Werder Bremen 1+ goals
86%
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
58%
Werder Bremen 3+ goals
31%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
70%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
34%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)
70%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen attack 1.80 + Cercle Brugge defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.95

Cercle Brugge attack 1.40 + Werder Bremen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Werder Bremen scores more
55%
level
22%
Cercle Brugge scores more
23%

Werder Bremen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Werder Bremen face Cercle Brugge (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Werder Bremen hosting Cercle Brugge. Match starts January 8, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Werder Bremen host Cercle Brugge at Pinatar Arena Football Center.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.