Werder Bremen U19 0–2 Schalke 04 U19

Werder Bremen U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Schalke 04 U19

M. Tubić 85'

M. Ayhan 63'

2/16/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 3Weserstadion Platz 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Werder Bremen U1940%

×Draw22%

Schalke 04 U1938%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.82

Werder Bremen U19

1.88

Schalke 04 U19

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 68 away

2.53

creates per match

2.00

1.65

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.53

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.65

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

62%

Werder Bremen U19 or Schalke 04 U19

78%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

60%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

85%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

56%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

29%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

84%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

54%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

38%

Werder Bremen U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

A. Halicioglu← M. Hathaway

63'

J. Warnken← J. Joas

63'

M. Ayhan

70'

B. Numbisie← M. Wallentowitz

79'

J. Ossadnik← A. Krogmann

79'

M. Tubić← J. NDiaye

83'

Alan Takoudjou← B. Dardari

85'

M. Tubić

Werder

Schalke

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Makiadi

63'▲A. Halicioglu←▼M. Hathaway

63'▲J. Warnken←▼J. Joas

79'▲J. Ossadnik←▼A. Krogmann

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

HaliciogluWarnkenOssadnikStarckeLindhorstFreiberg

Manager: N. Elgert

70'▲B. Numbisie←▼M. Wallentowitz

79'▲M. Tubić←▼J. NDiaye

83'▲Alan Takoudjou←▼B. Dardari

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

NumbisieTubićTakoudjouHöfelWestenbergerPfeifferCarus