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Werder Bremen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Werder Bremen U19
Werder Bremen U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
4/25/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Werder Bremen U1952%
×Draw20%
Preußen Münster U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Werder Bremen U19
2.27
Preußen Münster U19
1.65

Werder Bremen U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19
2.53
Preußen Münster U19
1.66

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19
1.65
Preußen Münster U19
2.02

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par
Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw
72%
Werder Bremen U19 or Preußen Münster U19
80%
Draw or Preußen Münster U19
48%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+
31%
Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals
90%
Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals
66%
Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals
39%
Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
81%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
49%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.65 · 72 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.53 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.27

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.66 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Preußen Münster U19 scores more
28%

Werder Bremen U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Werder
Preußen
C. Makiadi
Manager: C. Makiadi
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting

Werder Bremen U19 2 – 3 Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 25, 2026.