Werder Bremen U19 4–2 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Werder Bremen U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Osnabrück U19

2/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Weserstadion Platz 14 KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Werder Bremen U1959%

×Draw19%

Osnabrück U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Werder Bremen U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.46

Werder Bremen U19

2.46

Osnabrück U19

1.46

Werder Bremen U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 50 away

2.47

creates per match

1.22

1.70

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Werder Bremen U19

2.47

Osnabrück U19

1.22

allows per match

Werder Bremen U19

1.70

Osnabrück U19

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Werder Bremen U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Werder Bremen U19 or draw

78%

Werder Bremen U19 or Osnabrück U19

81%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

41%

Winning margin

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

38%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

91%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

70%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

44%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

77%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

43%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Werder Bremen U19 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.70 · 70 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.47 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.46

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

22%

Werder Bremen U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 4–2 Osnabrück U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Osnabrück U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Weserstadion Platz 14 KR in Bremen.

Werder Bremen U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Werder Bremen U19 4–2 Osnabrück U19